Publications

Telehealth became a new norm in healthcare following the COVID-19 pandemic. This study evaluates the relationship between state telehealth payment parity legislation and health service utilization among insured workers in commercial insurance plans, finding that payment parity significantly increased telehealth visits and total outpatient visits without reducing in-person care.

State-level telehealth payment parity laws require equal reimbursement for telehealth and in-person visits. This study evaluates how payment parity affected utilization of disease-specific recommended care and emergency department services among insured patients with chronic mental health disorders and cardiometabolic risks, finding significant increases in psychotherapy visits and reductions in ED visits for mental health.

Importance Understanding health conditions with the most spending and variation across locations and over time is important for identifying trends, highlighting inequalities, and developing strategies for lowering health spending. Objective To estimate US health care spending for each of 3110 US counties, across 4 payers (Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, and out-of-pocket payments), and according to 148 health conditions, 38 age/sex groups, and 7 types of care from 2010 to 2019. Design, Setting, and Participants Observational analysis using more than 40 billion insurance claims and nearly 1 billion facility records. Exposures Ambulatory care, dental care, emergency department care, home health care, hospital inpatient care, nursing facility care, and purchase of prescribed retail pharmaceuticals. Main Outcomes and Measures Health care spending and utilization (eg, number of visits, admissions, or prescriptions) estimates from 2010 through 2019. Results Between 2010 and 2019, 76.6% of personal health care spending was captured by this study. More spending was on type 2 diabetes ($143.9 billion [95% CI, $140 billion-$147.2 billion]) than on any other health condition, followed by other musculoskeletal disorders, which includes joint pain and osteoporosis ($108.6 billion [95% CI, $106.4 billion-$110.3 billion]), oral disorders ($93 billion [95% CI, $92.7 billion-$93.3 billion]), and ischemic heart disease ($80.7 billion [95% CI, $79 billion-$82.4 billion]). Of total spending, 42.2% (95% CI, 42.2%-42.2%) was on ambulatory care, while 23.8% (95% CI, 23.8%-23.8%) was on hospital inpatient care and 13.7% (95% CI, 13.7%-13.7%) was on prescribed retail pharmaceuticals. At the county level, age-standardized spending per capita ranged from $3410 (95% CI, $3281-$3529) in Clark County, Idaho, to $13 332 (95% CI, $13 177-$13 489) in Nassau County, New York. Across counties, the greatest variation was in age-standardized out-of-pocket spending, followed by private insurance spending. Cross-county variation was driven more by variation in utilization rates than variation in price and intensity of care, although both types of variation were substantial for all payers but Medicare. Conclusions and Relevance Broad variation in health care spending was observed across US counties. Understanding this variation by health condition, sex, age, type of care, and payer is valuable for identifying outliers, highlighting inequalities, and assessing health care gaps.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) can exhibit biases, compromise data privacy, misinterpret prompts that are adversarial attacks, and produce hallucinations. Despite the potential of generative AI for many applications in digital health, practitioners must understand these tools and their limitations. This scoping review pays particular attention to the challenges with generative AI technologies in medical settings and surveys potential solutions. Using PubMed, we identified a total of 120 articles published by March 2024, which reference and evaluate generative AI in medicine, from which we synthesized themes and suggestions for future work. After first discussing general background on generative AI, we focus on collecting and presenting 6 challenges key for digital health practitioners and specific measures that can be taken to mitigate these challenges. Overall, bias, privacy, hallucination, and regulatory compliance were frequently considered, while other concerns around generative AI, such as overreliance on text models, adversarial misprompting, and jailbreaking, are not commonly evaluated in the current literature.

A comprehensive, collective approach to navigating the challenges of bias, privacy, and ethical considerations presented by the use of artificial intelligence in health care will require robust frameworks, continuous learning, and a commitment to equity. The insights and discussions presented in this issue are a testament to the ongoing efforts in North Carolina and beyond to find a balance between innovation with responsibility, ensuring that AI can deliver on its promise to enhance outcomes.

Infectious disease surveillance is difficult in many low- and middle-income countries. Information market (IM)–based participatory surveillance is a crowdsourcing method that encourages individuals to actively report health symptoms and observed trends by trading web-based virtual "stocks" with payoffs tied to a future event. This study aims to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a tailored IM surveillance system to monitor population-level COVID-19 outcomes in Accra, Ghana. We designed and evaluated a prediction markets IM system from October to December 2021 using a mixed methods study approach. Using an IM system for disease surveillance is feasible and acceptable in Ghana. This approach shows promise as a cost-effective source of information on disease trends in low- and middle-income countries where surveillance is underdeveloped.

Clinical decision support systems must balance comprehensive information with cognitive load. This paper introduces Dynamic Information Sub-Selection (DISS), a method for optimizing which information to present to clinicians during decision-making. DISS uses machine learning to dynamically select the most decision-relevant information, reducing cognitive burden while maintaining or improving diagnostic accuracy.

Telemedicine has experienced rapid growth as an alternative care venue, particularly in China where it has become increasingly integrated into the healthcare system. This study develops and applies innovative approaches to measure care quality in China's telemedicine market, providing evidence on provider behavior and patient outcomes in virtual care settings.

Telemedicine has expanded access to care for sensitive health conditions including sexually transmitted infections. Using standardized patients, this study evaluates the quality of telemedicine consultations for STIs in China, examining diagnostic accuracy, treatment recommendations, and patient communication.

PurposeLiterature has shown that the intergenerational transmission of cognitive abilities is stronger for children raised in more advantaged environments. However, there has never been an empirical investigation of this pattern in China. This study examines differences in the intergenerational transmission of cognitive capabilities among mothers and young children in urban and rural subpopulations in China and investigates whether these differences are driven by differences in parental investment in the home environment.Design/methodology/approachData collected from randomly selected 6- to 36-month-old babies and their mothers in a Northwestern province in China was used. Child capabilities were assessed by the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (3rd edition). Maternal intelligence quotient (IQ) scores were assessed with the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test. The non-parametric regression methods were used to construct the factor scores of child capabilities. The ordinary least squares (OLS) models were employed to investigate the relations between child cognition, maternal IQ and parental investment.FindingsIn urban households, where most children are raised in a positive home environment, child cognitive scores are strongly correlated with maternal IQ. In rural households, where parental investments are lower and more variable, child cognitive scores are not significantly correlated with maternal IQ but are predicted by differences in parental investments in a cognitively stimulating home environment.Originality/valueThis study provides a unique contribution by utilizing rural–urban disparities in China as a unique natural experiment to investigate differences in the transmission of cognitive capabilities across socioeconomic status (SES). It also provides the first empirical evidence of SES differences in the intergenerational transmission of cognitive capabilities in a developing country. This study reveals that intergenerational mother–child cognition associations are disrupted by poor parental investment in rural households but not in urban households.

Poor development of young children is a common issue in developing countries and it is well established that iron deficiency anemia is one of the risk factors. Research has shown that iron deficiency is a common micronutrient deficiency among children in rural China and can result in anemia. A previous paper using data from the same trial as those used in the current study, but conducted when sample children were younger, found that after 6 months of providing caregivers of children 6–11 months of age free access to iron-rich micronutrient powder (MNP) increased the hemoglobin concentrations (Hb) of their children. However, no effects were found 12 and 18 months after the intervention. The current study followed up the children four years after the start of the original intervention (when the children were 4–5 years old) and aims to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP program on the nutritional status of the sample pre-school-aged children, including their levels of Hb, the prevalence of anemia, and the dietary diversity of the diets of the children. At baseline, this study sampled 1,802 children aged 6–11 months in rural Western China. The intervention lasted 18 months. In this medium-term follow-up study that successfully followed 81% (n = 1,464) of children (aged 49–65 months) from the original study population 4 years after the start of the intervention, we used both intention-to-treat (ITT) effect and average treatment on the treated effect (ATT) analyses to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP distribution program on the nutritional status of sample children. The ITT analysis shows that the MNP intervention decreased the prevalence of anemia of young children in the medium run by 8% (4 percentage points, p < 0.1). The ATT analysis shows that consuming 100 (out of 540) MNP sachets during the initial intervention led to a decrease in anemia of 4% (2 percentage points, p < 0.1). Among children with moderate anemia at baseline (Hb < 100 g/L), the intervention reduced the probability of anemia by 45% (9 percentage points, p < 0.1), and, for those families that complied by consuming 100 (out of 540) sachets, a 25% (5 percentage points, p < 0.05) reduction in the anemia rate was found. The MNP intervention also led to a persistent increase in dietary diversity among children that were moderately anemic at baseline. The results from the quantile treatment effect analysis demonstrated that children with lower Hb levels at baseline benefited relatively more from the MNP intervention. The findings of the current study reveal that the MNP intervention has medium-term effects on the nutritional status of children in rural China. The impacts of the MNP program were relatively higher for children that initially had more severe anemia levels. Hence, the implications of this study are that programs that aim to increase caregiver knowledge of nutrition and improve their feeding practices should be encouraged across rural China. Families, policymakers, and China’s society overall need to continue to pay more attention to problems of childhood anemia in rural areas. This is particularly crucial for families with moderately anemic children at an early age as it can significantly contribute to improving the anemia status of children across rural areas of China. ISRCTN44149146 (15/04/2013).

Mobile health (mHealth) interventions offer promising approaches for diabetes management in resource-limited settings. This cluster randomized controlled trial evaluates the effectiveness of an mHealth-supported healthy future programme for improving type 2 diabetes outcomes among patients in Nairobi, Kenya.

Introduction Millions of young rural children in China still suffer from poor health and malnutrition, partly due to a lack of knowledge about optimal perinatal and child care among rural mothers and caregivers. Meanwhile, there is an urgent need to improve maternal mental health in rural communities. Comprehensive home visiting programmes delivered by community health workers (CHWs) can bridge the caregiver knowledge gap and improve child health and maternal well-being in low-resource settings, but the effectiveness of this approach is unknown in rural China. Additionally, grandmothers play important roles in child care and family decision-making in rural China, suggesting the importance of engaging multiple caregivers in interventions. The Healthy Future programme seeks to improve child health and maternal well-being by developing a staged-based curriculum that CHWs deliver to mothers and caregivers of young children through home visits with the assistance of a tablet-based mHealth system. This protocol describes the design and evaluation plan for this programme. Methods and analysis We designed a cluster-randomised controlled trial among 119 rural townships in four nationally designated poverty counties in Southwestern China. We will compare the outcomes between three arms: one standard arm with only primary caregivers participating in the intervention, one encouragement arm engaging primary and secondary caregivers and one control arm with no intervention. Families with pregnant women or infants under 6 months of age are invited to enrol in the 12-month study. Primary outcomes include children’s haemoglobin levels, exclusive breastfeeding rates and dietary diversity in complementary feeding. Secondary outcomes include a combination of health, behavioural and intermediate outcomes. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been provided by Stanford University, Sichuan University and the University of Nevada, Reno. Trial findings will be disseminated through national and international peer-reviewed publications and conferences. Trial registration number ISRCTN16800789.

Background To inform policy and implementation that can enhance prevention and improve tuberculosis (TB) care cascade outcomes, this review aimed to summarize the impact of various interventions on care cascade outcomes for active TB. Methods and findings In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we retrieved English articles with comparator arms (like randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and before and after intervention studies) that evaluated TB interventions published from January 1970 to September 30, 2022, from Embase, CINAHL, PubMed, and the Cochrane library. Commentaries, qualitative studies, conference abstracts, studies without standard of care comparator arms, and studies that did not report quantitative results for TB care cascade outcomes were excluded. Data from studies with similar comparator arms were pooled in a random effects model, and outcomes were reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and number of studies (k). The quality of evidence was appraised using GRADE, and the study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42018103331). Of 21,548 deduplicated studies, 144 eligible studies were included. Of 144 studies, 128 were from low/middle-income countries, 84 were RCTs, and 25 integrated TB and HIV care. Counselling and education was significantly associated with testing (OR = 8.82, 95% CI:1.71 to 45.43; I2 = 99.9%, k = 7), diagnosis (OR = 1.44, 95% CI:1.08 to 1.92; I2 = 97.6%, k = 9), linkage to care (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.97 to 4.86; I2 = 0%, k = 1), cure (OR = 2.08, 95% CI:1.11 to 3.88; I2 = 76.7%, k = 4), treatment completion (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.03; I2 = 73.1%, k = 8), and treatment success (OR = 3.24, 95% CI: 1.88 to 5.55; I2 = 75.9%, k = 5) outcomes compared to standard-of-care. Incentives, multisector collaborations, and community-based interventions were associated with at least three TB care cascade outcomes; digital interventions and mixed interventions were associated with an increased likelihood of two cascade outcomes each. These findings remained salient when studies were limited to RCTs only. Also, our study does not cover the entire care cascade as we did not measure gaps in pre-testing, pretreatment, and post-treatment outcomes (like loss to follow-up and TB recurrence). Conclusions Among TB interventions, education and counseling, incentives, community-based interventions, and mixed interventions were associated with multiple active TB care cascade outcomes. However, cost-effectiveness and local-setting contexts should be considered when choosing such strategies due to their high heterogeneity.

Breastfeeding self-efficacy (BSE), defined as a mother’s confidence in her ability to breastfeed, has been confirmed to predict the uptake of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF). Early experiences during the birth hospital stay, especially in-hospital formula feeding (IHFF), can impact both EBF and maternal breastfeeding confidence. Therefore, our objective was to examine the association between IHFF and EBF outcomes and investigate whether this association is influenced by BSE. The study included 778 infants from a larger cohort study conducted in 2021, with a one-year follow-up in rural areas of Sichuan Province, China. We used a causal mediation analysis to estimate the total effect (TE), natural direct (NDE), and nature indirect effects (NIE) using the paramed command in Stata. Causal mediation analyses revealed that IHFF was negatively associated with EBF (TE odds ratio = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.76); 28% of this association was mediated by BSE. In the subgroup analysis, there were no significant differences in the effects between parity subgroups, as well as between infant delivery subgroups. Our study found that IHFF hindered later EBF and that BSE mediated this association. Limiting the occurrence of in-hospital formula feeding or improving maternal breastfeeding self-efficacy is likely to improve exclusive breastfeeding outcomes.

Although children living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for 90% of the global population of children, depression, and anxiety among children in LMICs have been understudied. This study examines the prevalence of depression and anxiety and their associations with biological and psychosocial factors among children across China, with a focus on rural areas. We conducted a large-scale epidemiological study of depression and anxiety among 53,421 elementary and junior high school-aged children across China. The results show that 20% are at risk for depression, 6% are at risk for generalized anxiety, and 68% are at risk for at least one type of anxiety. Girls and junior high school students show a higher risk for both depression and anxiety symptoms, while socioeconomic status has varying associations to depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results also show consistent correlations between depression and anxiety symptoms and standard math test scores. These findings underscore the importance of identification, prevention, and treatment of youth depression and anxiety in underdeveloped areas. As China constitutes 15% of the global population of children under age 18, this study offers valuable information to the field of global mental health.

Digital technologies offer new opportunities for community engagement in clinical trials research. This paper reviews digital approaches to enhancing community participation, examining how social media, mobile apps, and online platforms can improve recruitment, retention, and meaningful involvement of community stakeholders in research.

One out of every three children under age 5 in developing countries lives in conditions that impede human capital development. In this study, we survey the literature on parenting training programs implemented before age 5, with the aim to increase parental investment in human capital accumulation in developing countries. Our review focuses on the implementation and effectiveness of parenting training programs (i.e., training in child psychosocial stimulation and/or training about nutrition). We emphasize the mechanisms that drive treatment-induced change in human capital outcomes and identify the demand- and supply-side behaviors that affect efficacy and effectiveness. Although the literature includes evidence on program features that are associated with successful interventions, further evidence on the dynamics of human capital formation, documentation of medium- to long-term persistence of treatment impacts, and research on the implementation and evaluation of programs at scale are needed to delineate a scalable and inclusive program that provides long-term treatment impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 14 is October 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Background To address disparities in healthcare quality and access between rural and urban areas in China, reforms emphasize strengthening primary care and digital health utilization. Yet, evidence on digital health approaches in rural areas is lacking. Objective This study will evaluate the effectiveness of Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital's Digital Health Kiosk program, which uses the Dingbei telemedicine platform to connect rural clinicians to physicians in upper-level health facilities and provide access to artificial intelligence-enabled diagnostic support. We hypothesize that our interventions will increase healthcare utilization and patient satisfaction, decrease out-of-pocket costs, and improve health outcomes. Methods This cluster randomized control trial will enroll clinics according to a partial factorial design. Clinics will be randomized to either a control arm with clinician medical training, a second arm additionally receiving Dingbei telemedicine training, or a third arm with monetary incentives for patient visits conducted through Dingbei plus all prior interventions. Clinics in the second and third arm will then be orthogonally randomized to a social marketing arm that targets villager awareness of the kiosk program. We will use surveys and Dingbei administrative data to evaluate clinic utilization, revenue, and clinician competency, as well as patient satisfaction and expenses. Results We have received ethical approval from Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital (IRB approval number: GD2H-KY IRB-AF-SC.07-01.1), Peking University (IRB00001052-21007), and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (323385). Study enrollment began April 2022. Conclusions This study has the potential to inform future telemedicine approaches and assess telemedicine as a method to address disparities in healthcare access. Trial registration number: ChiCTR2100053872

Digital health kiosks offer potential to improve healthcare access in rural areas. This study evaluates a village-based digital health kiosk program in rural China through two cluster-randomized controlled trials, examining effects on care quality, utilization, and health outcomes in underserved communities.

Telemedicine offers potential to address healthcare access disparities in rural areas. This qualitative study explores the factors influencing the adoption and use of telemedicine services among primary care physicians and patients in rural China, identifying barriers and facilitators to implementation.

Background The shortage of medical resources in rural China reflects the health inequity in resource-limited settings, whereas telemedicine could provide opportunities to fill this gap. However, evidence of patient acceptance of telemedicine services from low- and middle-income countries is still lacking. Objective We aimed to understand the profile of patient end-user telemedicine use and identify factors influencing telemedicine service use in rural China. Methods Our study followed a mixed methods approach, with a quantitative cross-sectional survey followed by in-depth semistructured interviews to describe telemedicine use and its associated factors among rural residents in Guangdong Province, China. In the quantitative analysis, explanatory variables included environmental and context factors, household-level factors, individual sociodemographic factors, access to digital health care, and health needs and demand factors. We conducted univariate and multivariate analyses using Firth logistic regression to examine the correlations of telemedicine uptake. A thematic approach was used, guided by the Social Cognitive Theory for the qualitative analysis. Results A total of 2101 households were recruited for the quantitative survey. With a mean age of 61.4 (SD 14.41) years, >70% (1364/2101, 72.94%) of the household respondents were male. Less than 1% (14/2101, 0.67%) of the respondents reported experience of using telemedicine. The quantitative results supported that villagers living with family members who had a fever in the past 2 weeks (adjusted odds ratio 6.96, 95% CI 2.20-21.98; P=.001) or having smartphones or computers (adjusted odds ratio 3.71, 95% CI 0.64-21.32; P=.14) had marginally higher telemedicine uptake, whereas the qualitative results endorse these findings. The results of qualitative interviews (n=27) also supplemented the potential barriers to telemedicine use from the lack of knowledge, trust, demand, low self-efficacy, and sufficient physical and social support. Conclusions This study found extremely low use of telemedicine in rural China and identified potential factors affecting telemedicine uptake. The main barriers to telemedicine adoption among rural residents were found, including lack of knowledge, trust, demand as well as low self-efficacy, and insufficient physical and social support. Our study also suggests strategies to facilitate telemedicine engagement in low-resource settings: improving digital literacy and self-efficacy, building trust, and strengthening telemedicine infrastructure support.

Poor knowledge, scarce resources, and lack of or misaligned incentives have been widely documented as drivers of the irrational use of medicine (IUM), which significantly challenges the efficiency of health systems across the globe. However, there is limited understanding of the influence of each factor on IUM. We used detailed data on provider treatment of presumptive asthma cases in rural China to assess the contributions of provider knowledge, resource constraints, and provider behavior on IUM. This study enrolled 370 village providers from southwest China. All providers responded to a clinical vignette to test their knowledge of how to treat presumptive asthma. Resource constraints (“capacity”) were defined as the availability of the prescribed medicines in vignette. To measure provider behavior (“performance”), a subset of providers (104 of 370) were randomly selected to receive unannounced visits by standardized patients (SPs) who performed of presumptive asthma symptoms described in the vignette. We found that, 54% (201/370) of providers provided the vignette-based patients with prescriptions. Moreover, 67% (70/104) provided prescriptions for the SPs. For the vignette, only 10% of the providers prescribed the correct medicines; 38% prescribed only unnecessary medicines (and did not provide correct medicine); 65% prescribed antibiotics (although antibiotics were not required); and 55% prescribed polypharmacy prescriptions (that is, they prescribed five or more different types of drugs). For the SP visits, the numbers were 12%, 51%, 63%, and 0%, respectively. The lower number of medicines in the SP visits was due, in part, to the injections’ not being allowed based on ethical considerations (in response to the vignette, however, 65% of providers prescribed injections). The difference between provider knowledge and capacity is insignificant, while a significant large gap exists between provider performance and knowledge/capacity (for 11 of 17 indicators). Our analysis indicated that capacity constraints play a minor role in driving IUM compared to provider performance in the treatment of asthma cases in rural China. If similar findings hold for other disease cases, this suggests that policies to reduce the IUM in rural China have largely been unsuccessful, and alternatives for improving aligning provider incentives with appropriate drug use should be explored.

Digital network-based methods may enhance peer distribution of HIV self-testing kits. This three-arm randomized controlled trial evaluated whether monetary incentives and peer referral could improve secondary distribution of HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men in China, finding that both interventions significantly increased testing uptake and reached first-time testers.

Objective: To examine the responsiveness of primary care providers to pro-social and financial incentives to participate in a learning collaborative for the treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD). Study setting: We conducted a statewide experiment in North Carolina from January 2019 to November 2019 to expand access to support for providers learning to treat opioid use disorder using different types of messaging and incentives. Study design: We randomly assigned 15,835 primary care providers (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) in North Carolina to receive one of four letters recruiting providers to participate in an online learning collaborative. Principal findings: We found a 47.5% greater response rate when pro-social messaging was included compared to when it was not.

Abstract This study documents the COVID-19 disease-control measures enacted in rural China and examines the economic and social impacts of these measures. We conducted two rounds of surveys with 726 randomly selected village informants across seven provinces. Strict disease-control measures have been universally enforced and appear to have been successful in limiting disease transmission in rural communities. The infection rate in our sample was 0.001 per cent, a rate that is near the national average outside of Hubei province. None of the villages reported any COVID-19-related deaths. For a full month during the quarantine, the rate of employment of rural workers was essentially zero. Even after the quarantine measures were lifted, nearly 70 per cent of the villagers still were unable to work owing to workplace closures. Although action has been taken to mitigate the potential negative effects, these disease-control measures might have accelerated the inequality between rural and urban households in China.

This study conducts an exploratory analysis of the impacts of a center-based early childhood development intervention on the mental health of caregivers, using data from a cluster-randomized controlled trial of 1664 caregivers (Mage  = 36.87 years old) of 6- to 24-month-old children in 100 villages in rural China. Caregivers and children in 50 villages received individual parenting training, group activities and open play space in village parenting centers. The results show no significant overall change in caregiver-reported mental health symptoms after 1 year of intervention. Subgroup analyses reveal heterogeneous effects by caregiver socioeconomic status and identity (mother vs. grandmother). Findings suggest that early childhood development interventions without targeted mental health components may not provide sufficient support to improve caregiver mental health.

Background Improving primary care providers’ competence is key to detecting and managing hypertension, but evidence to guide this work has been limited, particularly for rural areas. This study aimed to use standardized clinical vignettes to assess the competence of providers and the ability of the primary healthcare system to detect and manage hypertension in rural China. Methods A multi-stage random sampling method was administered to select target health facilities, providers, and households. The clinical vignette script was developed to evaluate provider competence in managing first-visit patients with symptoms of hypertension. Logistic regression was used to explore the factors correlated with provider competence. Provider referral and management rates were combined with patients’ facility sorting behaviors to assess the ability of the rural healthcare system to manage hypertension in three policy scenarios. Results A total of 306 providers and 153 facilities were enrolled in our study. In the 306 clinical vignette interactions, 25.9% of providers followed the national guidelines for hypertension consultation. The correct diagnosis was achieved by only 10.1% of providers, and 30.4% of providers were able to prescribe the correct treatment. Multi-variable regression results showed that younger providers (OR = 0.85, 95%CI: 0.73, 0.98) and those who work in township health centers (OR = 4.47, 95%: 1.07, 18.67) were more likely to provide a correct diagnosis. In a free-selection scenario, 29.8% of patients with hypertension were managed correctly throughout the rural system. When all patients first visit village clinics, system-level correct management is reduced to 20.5% but increases to 45.0% when all patients first visit township health centers. Conclusions Rural primary care providers do not have enough competence to detect and treat hypertension cases in China to an acceptable degree. Policy constraints may limit the competence of the rural healthcare system. Research to improve detection and treatment competence in hypertension and optimize health policy is needed.

Over the past two decades, the literature has shown a clear gradient between child health and wealth. The same health–wealth gradient is also observed among children in China, with a large gap in health between rural and urban children. However, there are still unanswered questions about the main causes of China’s rural–urban child health inequality. This paper aims to review the major factors that have led to the relatively poor levels of health among China’s rural children. In addition to the direct income effect on children’s health, children in rural areas face disadvantages compared with their urban counterparts from the beginning of life: Prenatal care and infant health outcomes are worse in rural areas; rural caregivers have poor health outcomes and lack knowledge and support to provide adequate nurturing care to young children; there are large disparities in access to quality health care between rural and urban areas; and rural families are more likely to lack access to clean water and sanitation. In order to inform policies that improve health outcomes for the poor, there is a critical need for research that identifies the causal drivers of health outcomes among children. Strengthening the pediatric training and workforce in rural areas is essential to delivering quality health care for rural children. Other potential interventions include addressing the health needs of mothers and grandparent caregivers, improving parenting knowledge and nurturing care, improving access to clean water and sanitation for remote families, and most importantly, targeting poverty itself.

Many Nigerian patients are willing to pay for HIV treatment, but several socioeconomic factors play significant roles in willingness and capacity to pay for treatment and the maximum amounts patients are willing to pay. Key Findings Most people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving free HIV treatment services are willing to pay for the services if such free treatment services are no longer available. The socioeconomic status of PLHIV plays a critical role in the willingness to pay for treatment. The willingness is further enhanced by the availability of financial support from friends and family. The maximum price that most patients are willing to pay for HIV treatment services is less than the current cost of providing services and the different price points are elastic relative to the estimated current price of providing services. Key Implications The domestic funding for HIV treatment services in low-income countries can be improved through cost recovery from patient contribution to the cost of treatment. Equitable access to HIV treatment services can be achieved by ensuring that patients are segmented based on socioeconomic status to identify those that can benefit from free services, subsidized and full-priced payment for treatment services. Willingness to pay for HIV treatment services and funding sustainability of the HIV treatment program can be enhanced by reducing the cost of treatment, which improves treatment affordability. ABSTRACT Background: About 50% of individuals needing HIV treatment are unable to access required services primarily due to the inability of the Nigerian HIV treatment program to meet patient needs. We explored patient willingness to pay for HIV treatment, which can inform the feasibility of cost recovery through patient fees to contribute to the funding of HIV treatment services in Nigeria. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 400 people living with HIV randomly selected from 15 health care facilities providing free HIV treatment services in 2 medium and high HIV burden states (Lagos, Enugu) and the Federal Capital Territory Abuja. We calculated the elasticity of the price that patients were willing to pay per month relative to the estimated current cost of providing HIV treatment services per patient and determined the patient coverage and potential cost recovery at each price point. Results: We found that 92% of patients were willing to pay for HIV treatment. The mean amount patients were willing to pay was 3,000 naira (US$7.50) per month with about 18% of patients willing to pay the current monthly price of 5000 naira (US$12.50). The availability of financial support from family and friends (odds ratio [OR]=14.209; P=.001; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.151, 0.285), lack of employment (OR=0.190; P=.02; 95% CI=0.015, 0.202), monthly income (OR=2.476; P<.001; 95% CI=84.698, 737.233), and change in monthly income (OR=2.015; P<.001; 95% CI=0.003, 0.229) were associated with willingness to pay. Conclusion: Many Nigerian patients are willing to contribute to funding for HIV treatment and this can enhance domestic funding for HIV treatment and equitable access to treatment through proper segmentation of patients based on willingness and capacity to pay. Measures must be put in place to reduce the cost of accessing HIV treatment and promote financial empowerment of people living with HIV to improve willingness to pay for treatment.

Proper management of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a severe challenge to China's rural health system. This study investigates what influences the poor medical treatment of NCDs (diabetes and angina) by evaluating the “know-do gap” between provider knowledge and practice. To determine whether low levels of provider knowledge low quality of patient care is the primary constraint on the quality of NCDs diagnosis and treatment in rural China. Providers from Village Clinics (VC) and Township Health Centers (THC), and Standardized Patients (SP) were selected by a multi-stage random sampling method. Clinical vignettes were administered to 306 providers from 103 VCs and 50 THCs in rural Sichuan Province. SPs presented diabetes symptoms completed 97 interactions with providers in 46 VCs and 51 THCs; SPs presented angina symptoms completed 100 interactions with providers in 50 VCs and 50 THCs. Process quality, diagnosis quality, and treatment quality were assessed against national standards for diabetes and angina. Two-tailed T-tests and tests of proportions for continuous outcomes and tests of proportions for binary dependent variables were used to compare vignette and SP results. Differences between vignette and SP data calculated the know-do gap. Regression analyses were used to examine the providers/facility characteristics and knowledge/practice associations. THC providers demonstrated significantly more knowledge in vignettes and better practices in SP visits than VC providers. However, levels of knowledge were low overall: 48.2% of THC providers and 28.2% of VC providers properly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, while 23.8% of THC providers and 14.7% of VC providers properly diagnosed angina. With SPs, 2.1% of THC providers and 6.8% of VC providers correctly diagnosed type 2 diabetes; 25.5% of THC providers and 12.8% of VC providers correctly diagnosed angina. There were significant know-do gaps in diagnosis process quality, diagnosis quality, and treatment quality for diabetes (p < 0.01), and in diagnosis process quality (p < 0.05) and treatment quality for angina (p < 0.01). Providers in rural China display low levels of knowledge when treating diabetes and angina. Despite low knowledge, evidence of the know-do gap indicates that low-quality healthcare is the primary constraint on the quality of NCD diagnosis and treatment in rural China. Our research findings provide a new perspective for the evaluation of the medical quality and a technical basis for the development of new standardized cases in the future.

Besides increasing knowledge, there is another potential mechanism at work when information is delivered to a treatment group: increasing the salience of existing knowledge. We use data from a randomized controlled trial of a health information campaign to explore the relative importance of this additional mechanism in a real-world environment. The health information campaign addressed the benefits of wearing eyeglasses and provided information meant to address the common misconceptions that contribute to low adoption rates of eyeglasses. In total, our study sample included 931 students with poor vision (mostly myopia), their parents, and their homeroom teachers in 84 primary schools in rural China. We find that the health information campaign was able to successfully increase student ownership and wearing of eyeglasses, relative to a control group. We demonstrate that the campaign had a larger impact when levels of preexisting information among certain subgroups of participants—namely, parents of students—were higher while we simultaneously provided new information to others. This suggests that the interaction between directed attention (i.e., salience) and baseline knowledge is important. We do not, however, find similar increases among teachers or the students themselves and additionally find no impacts on academic outcomes.

Background Improving type 2 diabetes (T2D) care is key to managing and reducing disease burden due to the growing prevalence of diabetes worldwide, but research on this topic, specifically from rural areas, is limited. This study uses standardized patients (SPs) to assess T2D care quality among primary care providers to access the healthcare system in rural China. Methods Using multi-stage random sampling, health facilities, providers, and households were selected. SPs were used to evaluate providers' T2D care quality and a questionnaire survey was used to collect patient sorting behaviors from households. Logistic regression was used to explore factors correlated with T2D care quality. Provider referral and treatment rates were combined with patient sorting behaviors to assess the overall quality of T2D management by rural China's healthcare system. Results A total of 126 providers, 106 facilities, and 750 households were enrolled into this study. During SP interactions, 20% of rural providers followed the national guidelines for T2D consultation, 32.5% gave correct treatment, and 54.7% provided lifestyle suggestions. Multi-variable regression results showed that providers who had earned practicing certificates (β = 1.56, 95% CI: 0.44, 2.69) and saw more patients (β = 0.77, 95%: 0.25, 1.28) were more likely to use a higher number of recommended questions and perform better examinations, whereas providers who participated in online training were less likely to practice these behaviors (β = −1.03, 95%: −1.95, −0.11). The number of recommended questions and examination (NRQE) was the only significant correlated factor with correct treatment (marginal effect = 0.05, 95%: 0.01, 0.08). Throughout the rural healthcare system, 23.7% of T2D patients were treated correctly. Conclusion The quality of T2D care in rural western China, especially throughout the consultation and treatment process during a patient's first visit, is poor. Online training may not improve T2D care quality and low patient volume was likely to indicate poor care quality. Further research is needed to explore interventions for improving T2D care quality in rural China's healthcare system.

Previous studies have been limited by not directly comparing the quality of public and private CHCs using a standardized patient method (SP). This study aims to evaluate and compare the quality of the primary care provided by public and private CHCs using a standardized patient method in urban China. We recruited 12 standardized patients from the local community presenting fixed cases (unstable angina and asthma), including 492 interactions between physicians and standardized patients across 63 CHCs in Xi’an, China. We measured the quality of primary care on seven criteria: (1) adherence to checklists, (2) correct diagnosis, (3) correct treatment, (4) number of unnecessary exams and drugs, (5) diagnosis time, (6) expense of visit, (7) patient-centered communication. Significant quality differences were observed between public CHCs and private CHCs. Private CHC physicians performed 4.73 percentage points lower of recommended questions and exams in the checklist. Compared with private CHCs, public CHC providers were more likely to give a higher proportion of correct diagnosis and correct treatment. Private CHCs provided 1.42 fewer items of unnecessary exams and provided 0.32 more items of unnecessary drugs. Private CHC physicians received a 9.31 lower score in patient-centered communication. There is significant quality inequality in different primary care models. Public CHC physicians might provide a higher quality of service. Creating a comprehensive, flexible, and integrated health care system should be considered an effective approach towards optimizing the management of CHC models.

Despite widespread recognition that universal health coverage is a political choice, the roles that a country's political system plays in ensuring essential health services and minimizing financial risk remain poorly understood. Identifying the political determinants of universal health coverage is important for continued progress, and understanding the roles of political systems is particularly valuable in a global economic recession, which tests the continued commitment of nations to protecting their health of its citizens and to shielding them from financial risk. We measured the associations that democracy has with universal health coverage and government health spending in 170 countries during the period 1990-2019. We assessed how economic recessions affect those associations (using synthetic control methods) and the mechanisms connecting democracy with government health spending and universal health coverage (using machine learning methods). Our results show that democracy is positively associated with universal health coverage and government health spending and that this association is greatest for low-income countries. Free and fair elections were the mechanism primarily responsible for those positive associations. Democracies are more likely than autocracies to maintain universal health coverage, even amid economic recessions, when access to affordable, effective health services matters most.

Introduction Inadequate care during early childhood can lead to long-term deficits in skills. Parenting programmes that encourage investment in young children are a promising tool for improving early development outcomes and long-term opportunities in low-income and middle-income regions, such as rural China. Methods We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to investigate the prevalence of early developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices as well as the effect of parental training programmes on child development outcomes in rural China. We obtained data in English from EconPapers, PubMed, PsycARTICLES, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and Scopus (Elsevier) and in Chinese from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and VIP Information. We conducted frequentist meta-analyses of aggregate data and estimated random-effects meta-regressions. Certainty of evidence was rated according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Results We identified 19 observational studies on the prevalence of developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices for children under 5 years of age (n=19 762) and ten studies on the impact of parental training programmes on early child development (n=13 766). Children’s risk of cognitive, language and social-emotional delays in the rural study sites (covering 14 provinces mostly in Central and Western China) was 45%, 46%, and 36%, respectively. Parental training programmes had a positive impact on child cognition, language and social-emotional development. Conclusion There is evidence to suggest that early developmental delay and the absence of stimulating parenting practices (ie, reading, storytelling and singing with children) may be prevalent across rural, low-income and middle-income regions in Central and Western China. Results support the effectiveness of parental training programmes to improve early development by encouraging parental engagement. Trial registration number This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020218852).

Studies have shown that nearly half of rural toddlers in China have cognitive delays due to an absence of stimulating parenting practices, such as early childhood reading, during the critical first three years of life. However, few studies have examined the reasons behind these low levels of stimulating parenting, and no studies have sought to identify the factors that limit caregivers from providing effective early childhood reading practices (EECRP). This mixed-methods study investigates the perceptions, prevalence, and correlates of EECRP in rural China, as well as associations with child cognitive development. We use quantitative survey results from 1748 caregiver–child dyads across 100 rural villages/townships in northwestern China and field observation and interview data with 60 caregivers from these same sites. The quantitative results show significantly low rates of EECRP despite positive perceptions of early reading and positive associations between EECRP and cognitive development. The qualitative results suggest that low rates of EECRP in rural China are not due to the inability to access books, financial or time constraints, or the absence of aspirations. Rather, the low rate of book ownership and absence of reading to young children is driven by the insufficient and inaccurate knowledge of EECRP among caregivers, which leads to their delayed, misinformed reading decisions with their young children, ultimately contributing to developmental delays.

Abstract This study examines the effects of local and nationwide COVID‐19 disease control measures on the health and economy of China's rural population. We conducted phone surveys with 726 randomly selected village informants across seven rural Chinese provinces in February 2020. Four villages (0.55%) reported infections, and none reported deaths. Disease control measures had been universally implemented in all sample villages. About 74% of informants reported that villagers with wage‐earning jobs outside the village had stopped working due to workplace closures. A higher percentage of rural individuals could not work due to transportation, housing, and other constraints. Local governments had taken measures to reduce the impact of COVID‐19. Although schools in all surveyed villages were closed, 71% of village informants reported that students were attending classes online. Overall, measures to control COVID‐19 appear to have been successful in limiting disease transmission in rural communities outside the main epidemic area. Rural Chinese citizens, however, have experienced significant economic consequences from the disease control measures.

Introduction In the past three decades, China has made great strides in the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis (TB). However, the TB burden remains high. In 2019, China accounted for 8.4% of global incident cases of TB, the third highest in the world, with a higher prevalence in rural areas. The Healthy China 2030 highlights the gate-keeping role of primary healthcare (PHC). However, the impact of PHC reforms on the future TB burden is unclear. We propose to use mathematical models to project and evaluate the impacts of different gate-keeping policies. Methods and analysis We will develop a deterministic, population-level, compartmental model to capture the dynamics of TB transmission within adult rural population. The model will incorporate seven main TB statuses, and each compartment will be subdivided by service providers. The parameters involving preference for healthcare seeking will be collected using discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. We will solve the deterministic model numerically over a 20-year (2021–2040) timeframe and predict the TB prevalence, incidence and cumulative new infections under the status quo or various policy scenarios. We will also conduct an analysis following standard protocols to calculate the average cost-effectiveness for each policy scenario relative to the status quo. A numerical calibration analysis against the available published TB prevalence data will be performed using a Bayesian approach. Ethics and dissemination Most of the data or parameters in the model will be obtained based on secondary data (eg, published literature and an open-access data set). The DCE survey has been reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University. The approval number is SYSU [2019]140. Results of the study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, media and conference presentations.

Background: Although children living in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for 90% of the global population of children, mental health among children in LMICs has been understudied. This study examines the prevalence of depression and anxiety and their associations with biological and psychosocial factors among children across China, with a focus on rural areas. Methods: We conduct a large-scale epidemiological study among 53,421 elementary and junior high school-aged children across China’s rural areas. Findings: The results show that 20% are at risk for depression, 6% are at risk for generalized anxiety, and 68% are at risk for at least one type of anxiety. Girls and junior high school students show higher risk for mental health problems; socioeconomic status has varying associations to mental health. Our results also show robust correlations between mental health and cognition.   Interpretation: These findings underscore the importance of identification, prevention, and treatment of youth mental health problems in underdeveloped areas. As China constitutes 15% of the global population of children under age 18, this study offers valuable information to the field of Global Mental Health, especially given its findings of high prevalence for multiple mental health problems and robust correlations between mental health and cognition. Funding Statement: This work was supported by the Enlight Foundation. Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The six surveys conducted by the authors and their colleagues were approved by the Stanford University Institutional Review Board. Study permissions were also obtained from the Chinese government. In accordance with IRB requirements, all children involved in the surveys provided oral assent for the project, and the school principals – who serve as the children’s legal guardians while they are in school—also provided their written consent.

This study explores the preference for daily versus on‐demand pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in developing countries when both regimens are available.

A key feature of public sector employment in many countries is rigid civil service rules that effectively limit manager autonomy over hiring, firing, promotion, and compensation decisions. We study the effect of these rules by comparing the quality of healthcare provided by physicians employed as civil servants with physicians hired in the same facilities on fixed-term contracts that give managers more autonomy over personnel decisions. Using data from interactions with unannounced standardized patients, we find that fixed-term contracts motivate greater diagnostic effort without increasing unnecessary treatments. Lower effort among civil servants appears due to both weaker career and wage incentives.

Background China issued strict nationwide guidelines to combat the COVID-19 outbreak in January 2020 and gradually loosened the restrictions on movement in early March. Little is known about how these disease control measures affected the 600 million people who live in rural China. The goal of this paper is to document the quarantine measures implemented in rural China outside the epicenter of Hubei Province and to assess the socioeconomic effect of the measures on rural communities over time. Methods We conducted three rounds of interviews with informants from 726 villages in seven provinces, accounting for over 25% of China’s overall rural population. The survey collected data on rural quarantine implementation; COVID-19 infections and deaths in the survey villages; and effects of the quarantine on employment, income, education, health care, and government policies to address any negative impacts. The empirical findings of the work established that strict quarantine measures were implemented in rural villages throughout China in February. Results There was little spread of COVID-19 in rural communities: an infection rate of 0.001% and zero deaths reported in our sample. However, there were negative social and economic outcomes, including high rates of unemployment, falling household income, rising prices, and disrupted student learning. Health care was generally accessible, but many delayed their non-COVID-19 health care due to the quarantine measures. Only 20% of villagers received any form of local government aid, and only 11% of villages received financial subsidies. There were no reports of national government aid programs that targeted rural villagers in the sample areas. Conclusions By examining the economic and social effects of the COVID-19 restrictions in rural communities, this study will help to guide other middle- and low-income countries in their containment and restorative processes. Without consideration for economically vulnerable populations, economic hardships and poverty will likely continue to have a negative impact on the most susceptible communities.

Background Cognitive development after age three tends to be stable and can therefore predict cognitive skills in later childhood. However, there is evidence that cognitive development is less stable before age three. In rural China, research has found large shares of children under age three are developmentally delayed, yet little is known about the trajectories of cognitive development between 0 and 3 years of age or how developmental trajectories predict later cognitive skills. This study seeks to describe the trajectories of child cognitive development between the ages of 0–3 years and examine how different trajectories predict cognitive development at preschool age. Methods We collected three waves of longitudinal panel data from 1245 children in rural Western China. Child cognitive development was measured by the Bayley Scales of Infant Development when the child was 6–12 months and 22–30 months, and by the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence-Fourth Edition when the child was 49–65 months. We used the two measures of cognitive development before age three to determine the trajectories of child cognitive development. Results Of the children, 39% were never cognitively delayed; 13% were persistently delayed; 7% experienced improving cognitive development; and 41% experienced deteriorating development before age 3. Compared to children who had never experienced cognitive delay, children with persistent cognitive delay and those with deteriorating development before age 3 had significantly lower cognitive scores at preschool age. Children with improving development before age 3 showed similar levels of cognition at preschool age as children who had never experienced cognitive delay. Conclusions Large shares of children under age 3 in rural Western China show deteriorating cognitive development from infancy to toddlerhood, which predict lower levels of cognition at preschool age. Policymakers should invest in improving cognitive development before age 3 to prevent long-term poor cognition among China’s rural children.

Background While the Chinese education system has seen massive improvements over the past few decades, there still exists large academic achievement gaps between rural and urban areas, which threaten China's long-term development. Additionally, recent literature has underscored the importance of early childhood development (ECD) in later-life human capital development. Objectives We analyze the lifecycle of cognitive development and learning outcomes in rural Chinese children by first examining if ECD outcomes affect cognition levels, then seeing if cognitive delays persist as children grow, and finally exploring connections between cognition and education outcomes. Methods We combine data from four recent studies examining different age groups (0-3, 4-5, 10-11, 13-14) to track cognitive outcomes. Results First, we find that ECD outcomes for children in rural China are poor, with almost one-in-two children being cognitively delayed. Second, we find that these cognitive delays seem to persist into middle school, with almost 37% of rural junior high school students being cognitively delayed. Finally, we show that cognition has a close relationship to academic achievement. Conclusion Our results suggest that urban/rural gaps in academic achievement originate at least in part from differences in ECD outcomes. Contributions While many papers have analyzed ECD, human capital, and inequality separately, this is the first paper to explicitly connect and combine these topics to analyze the lifecycle of cognitive development in the context of rural China.

Background Preliminary evaluations have found that family doctor contract services (FDCSs) have significantly controlled medical expenses, better managed chronic diseases, and increased patient satisfaction and service compliance. In 2016, China proposed the establishment of a family doctor system to carry out contract services, but studies have found the uptake and utilization of these services to be limited. This study aimed to investigate rural residents’ preferences for FDCSs from the perspective of the Chinese public. Methods A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was performed to elicit the preferences for FDCSs among rural residents in China. Attributes and levels were established based on a literature review and qualitative methods. Five attributes, i.e., cost, medicine availability, the reimbursement rate, family doctor competence, and family doctor attitude, were evaluated using a mixed logit model. Results A total of 609 residents were included in the main DCE analysis. The respondents valued the high competence (coefficient 2.44, [SE 0.13]) and the good attitude (coefficient 1.42, [SE 0.09]) of family doctors the most. Cost was negatively valued (coefficient − 0.01, [SE 0.01]), as expected. Preference heterogeneity analysis was conducted after adjusting the interaction terms, and we found that rural residents with higher educational attainment prefer a good attitude more than their counterparts with lower educational attainment. The estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for “high” relative to “low” competence was 441.13 RMB/year, and the WTP for a provider with a “good” attitude relative to a “poor” attitude was 255.77 RMB/year. Conclusion The present study suggests that strengthening and improving the quality of primary health care, including the competence and attitudes of family doctors, should be prioritized to increase the uptake of FDCSs. The contract service package, including the annual cost, the insurance reimbursement rate and individualized services, should be redesigned to be congruent with residents having different health statuses and their stated preferences.

Abstract Objective To assess the relation between autocratisation—substantial decreases in democratic traits (free and fair elections, freedom of civil and political association, and freedom of expression)—and countries’ population health outcomes and progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). Design Synthetic control analysis. Setting and country selection Global sample of countries for all years from 1989 to 2019, split into two categories: 17 treatment countries that started autocratising during 2000 to 2010, and 119 control countries that never autocratised from 1989 to 2019. The treatment countries comprised low and middle income nations and represent all world regions except North America and western Europe. A weighted combination of control countries was used to construct synthetic controls for each treatment country. This statistical method is especially well suited to population level studies when random assignment is infeasible and sufficiently similar comparators are not available. The method was originally developed in economics and political science to assess the impact of policies and events, and it is now increasingly used in epidemiology. Main outcome measures HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years, UHC effective coverage index (0-100 point scale), and out-of-pocket spending on health per capita. All outcome variables are for the period 1989 to 2019. Results Autocratising countries underperformed for all three outcome variables in the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation, despite some improvements in life expectancy, UHC effective coverage index, and out-of-pocket spending on health. On average, HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years increased by 2.2% (from 64.7 to 66.1 years) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.3% to 3.6%, P<0.001) (from 64.7 to 66.9 years) in the absence of autocratisation. On average, the UHC effective coverage index increased by 11.9% (from 42.5 to 47.6 points) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 20.2% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 21.2%, P<0.001) (from 42.5 to 51.1 points) in the absence of autocratisation. Finally, on average, out-of-pocket spending on health per capita increased by 10.0% (from $4.00 (£3.1; €3.4) to $4.4, log transformed) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by only 4.4% (95% confidence interval 3.9% to 4.6%, P<0.001) (from $4.0 to $4.2, log transformed) in the absence of autocratisation. Conclusions Autocratising countries had worse than estimated life expectancy, effective health service coverage, and levels of out-of-pocket spending on health. These results suggest that the noticeable increase in the number of countries that are experiencing democratic erosion in recent years is hindering population health gains and progress toward UHC. Global health institutions will need to adjust their policy recommendations and activities to obtain the best possible results in those countries with a diminishing democratic incentive to provide quality healthcare to populations.

Nearly 40 years into the HIV epidemic, the persistence of HIV stigma is a matter of grave urgency. Discrimination (i.e. enacted stigma) in healthcare settings is particularly problematic as it deprives people of critical healthcare services while also discouraging preventive care seeking by confirming fears of anticipated stigma. We review existing research on the effectiveness of stigma interventions in healthcare settings of low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC), where stigma control efforts are often further complicated by heavy HIV burdens, less developed healthcare systems, and the layering of HIV stigma with discrimination towards other marginalized identities. This review describes progress in this field to date and identifies research gaps to guide future directions for research.

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. As of 31 January 2020, this epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11 791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths. The World Health Organization has declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Methods A scoping review was conducted following the methodological framework suggested by Arksey and O’Malley. In this scoping review, 65 research articles published before 31 January 2020 were analyzed and discussed to better understand the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, dates of publication, journal language, authors’ affiliations, and methodological characteristics were included in the analysis. All the findings and statements in this review regarding the outbreak are based on published information as listed in the references. Results Most of the publications were written using the English language (89.2%). The largest proportion of published articles were related to causes (38.5%) and a majority (67.7%) were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes, but over time there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control. Studies thus far have shown that the virus’ origination is in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal associations have not been confirmed. Reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines have been discussed as ways to reduce transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment has proven effective; hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Conclusions There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies are relevant to control the current public emergency, more high-quality research is needed to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both the short- and long-term.

A key challenge in developing countries interested in providing early childhood development (ECD) programmes at scale is whether these programmes can be effectively delivered through existing public service infrastructures. We present the results of a randomised experiment evaluating the effects of a home-based parenting programme delivered by cadres in China’s Family Planning Commission (FPC)—the former enforcers of the one-child policy. We find that the programme significantly increased infant skill development after six months and that increased investments by caregivers alongside improvements in parenting skills were a major mechanism through which this occurred. Children who lagged behind in their cognitive development and received little parental investment at the onset of the intervention benefited most from the programme. Household participation in the programme was associated with the degree to which participants had a favourable view of the FPC, which also increased due to the programme.

Background Many countries are striving to become malaria-free, but global reduction in case estimates has stagnated in recent years. Substandard and falsified medicines may contribute to this lack of progress. Zambia aims to eliminate their annual burden of 1.2 million pediatric malaria cases and 2500 child deaths due to malaria. We examined the health and economic impact of poor-quality antimalarials in Zambia. Methods An agent-based model, Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI), was modified and applied to Zambia. The model was developed to simulate population characteristics, malaria incidence, patient care-seeking, disease progression, treatment outcomes, and associated costs of malaria for children under age five. Zambia-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost inputs were extracted from the literature. Simulations were run to estimate the health and economic impact of poor-quality antimalarials, the effect of potential artemisinin resistance, and six additional malaria focused policy interventions. Results We simulated annual malaria cases among Zambian children under five. At baseline, we found 2610 deaths resulting in $141.5 million in annual economic burden of malaria. We estimated that elimination of substandard and falsified antimalarials would result in an 8.1% ( n  = 213) reduction in under-five deaths, prevent 937 hospitalizations, and realize $8.5 million in economic savings, annually. Potential artemisinin resistance could further increase deaths by 6.3% ( n  = 166) and cost an additional $9.7 million every year. Conclusions Eliminating substandard and falsified antimalarials is an important step towards a malaria-free Zambia. Beyond the dissemination of insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and other malaria control measures, attention must also be paid to assure the quality of antimalarial treatments.

Background Non-physician clinicians (NPCs) providing services in functionally private markets account for a large share of the workforce in the primary care system in many low-income and middle-income countries. Although regular in-service training is believed to be crucial to updating NPCs’ professional knowledge, skills, and practices, participation rates are often low. Low participation may result from the “credence good” nature of the market for primary care: if patients are unable to observe quality improvements from training, NPCs have weaker incentives to participate. Empirical evidence is limited on the relationship between market competition and NPC participation in-service training as well as how participation varies with the type of training available. Methods The study uses a dataset of 301 NPCs from three prefectures in Yunnan, a province in southwest China, collected in July 2017. Logistic regression is used to estimate the relationship between competition and NPC’s participation in in-service training. We assess the relationship between participation and both the quantity of competition (number of competitors in the same village and surrounding villages) and the quality of competition (proxied using characteristics of competing clinicians). Results In 2016, nearly two thirds of NPCs participated in face-to-face or web-based in-service trainings at least once. Specifically, 58 percent of NPCs participated in face-to-face in-service trainings, and 24 percent of NPCs participated in web-based in-service trainings. The quantity of competitors is unrelated to participation in in-service training. The quality of competition is not related to face-to-face training but has a significant positive relationship with participation in web-based training. Conclusions Web-based trainings may be a better approach to increase NPC skills in developing country primary care markets.

We present results of a randomized trial testing the impact on academic outcomes of providing free eyeglasses to junior high school students in a poor rural area of western China. We find that providing free prescription eyeglasses approximately halves dropout rates over a school year among students who did not own eyeglasses at baseline. Effects on dropout are mirrored by improvements in student performance on standardized exams in math and aspirations for further schooling.

Background/aims Few studies have objectively examined the quality of eye care in China. We assessed refractive care using the incognito standardised patient (SP) approach, a gold standard for evaluating clinical practice. Methods A total of 52 SPs were trained to provide standardised responses during eye examinations, and underwent automated and non-cycloplegic, subjective refraction by a senior ophthalmologist from Zhongshan Ophthalmologic Center, a national-level clinical and research centre. SPs subsequently received subjective refraction and eye exams at a randomly selected sample of 40 public hospitals and 93 private optical shops in Shaanxi, Northwestern China. Difference between expert and local refraction in the better-seeing eye was calculated by the vector diopteric method, and completeness of exams assessed against national standards. SP and provider demographic information and provider clinical experience were recorded. Results SPs (n=52, mean (range) age, 25.7 (22–31) years, 28.8% male) underwent 133 eye exams (mean total duration 15.0±11.7 min) by 133 local refractionists (24–60 years, 30.3% male). Only 93 (69.9%), 121 (91.0%) and 104 (78.2%) of local refractionists assessed vision, automated and subjective refraction, respectively. The median inaccuracy was −0.25 diopters (D), while 25.6% of results differed by an absolute value of ≥1.0 D and 6.0% by ≥2.0 D. Predictors of inaccurate refraction included spectacle power <−6.0 D (OR=2.66; 95% CI, 1.27 to 5.56), service at a public (vs private) hospital (OR=2.01; 95% CI, 1.11 to 3.63) and provider male sex (OR=2.03; 95% CI, 1.11 to 3.69). Conclusion Inaccurate refractions are common in Northwestern China, particularly in public facilities. Important assessments, including subjective refraction, are frequently omitted.

Introduction Primary healthcare (PHC) serves as the cornerstone for the attainment of universal health coverage (UHC). Efforts to promote UHC should focus on the expansion of access and on healthcare quality. However, robust quality evidence has remained scarce in China. Common quality assessment methods such as chart abstraction, patient rating and clinical vignette use indirect information that may not represent real practice. This study will send standardised patients (SP or healthy person trained to consistently simulate the medical history, physical symptoms and emotional characteristics of a real patient) unannounced to PHC providers to collect quality information and represent real practice. Methods and analysis 1981 SP–clinician visits will be made to a random sample of PHC providers across seven provinces in China. SP cases will be developed for 10 tracer conditions in PHC. Each case will include a standard script for the SP to use and a quality checklist that the SP will complete after the clinical visit to indicate diagnostic and treatment activities performed by the clinician. Patient-centredness will be assessed according to the Patient Perception of Patient-Centeredness Rating Scale by the SP. SP cases and the checklist will be developed through a standard protocol and assessed for content, face and criterion validity, and test–retest and inter-rater reliability before its full use. Various descriptive analyses will be performed for the survey results, such as a tabulation of quality scores across geographies and provider types. Ethics and dissemination This study has been reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the School of Public Health of Sun Yat-sen University (#SYSU 2017-011). Results will be actively disseminated through print and social media, and SP tools will be made available for other researchers.

Abstract Unlike performance incentives for private sector managers, little is known about performance incentives for managers in public sector bureaucracies. Through a randomized trial in rural China, we study performance incentives rewarding school administrators for reducing student anemia—as well as complementarity between incentives and orthogonally assigned discretionary resources. Large (but not small) incentives and unrestricted grants both reduced anemia, but incentives were more cost-effective. Although unrestricted grants and small incentives do not interact, grants fully crowd-out the effect of larger incentives. Our findings suggest that performance incentives can be effective in bureaucratic environments, but they are not complementary to discretionary resources.

Background In high-income countries, obesity prevalence (body mass index greater than or equal to 30 kg/m2) is highest among the poor, while overweight (body mass index greater than or equal to 25 kg/m2) is prevalent across all wealth groups. In contrast, in low-income countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is higher among wealthier individuals than among poorer individuals. We characterize the transition of overweight and obesity from wealthier to poorer populations as countries develop, and project the burden of overweight and obesity among the poor for 103 countries. Methods and findings Our sample used 182 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Health Surveys (n = 2.24 million respondents) from 1995 to 2016. We created a standard wealth index using household assets common among all surveys and linked national wealth by country and year identifiers. We then estimated the changing probability of overweight and obesity across every wealth decile as countries’ per capita gross domestic product (GDP) rises using logistic and linear fixed-effect regression models. We found that obesity rates among the wealthiest decile were relatively stable with increasing national wealth, and the changing gradient was largely due to increasing obesity prevalence among poorer populations (3.5% [95% uncertainty interval: 0.0%–8.3%] to 14.3% [9.7%–19.0%]). Overweight prevalence among the richest (45.0% [35.6%–54.4%]) and the poorest (45.5% [35.9%–55.0%]) were roughly equal in high-income settings. At $8,000 GDP per capita, the adjusted probability of being obese was no longer highest in the richest decile, and the same was true of overweight at $10,000. Above $25,000, individuals in the richest decile were less likely than those in the poorest decile to be obese, and the same was true of overweight at $50,000. We then projected overweight and obesity rates by wealth decile to 2040 for all countries to quantify the expected rise in prevalence in the relatively poor. Our projections indicated that, if past trends continued, the number of people who are poor and overweight will increase in our study countries by a median 84.4% (range 3.54%–383.4%), most prominently in low-income countries. The main limitations of this study included the inclusion of cross-sectional, self-reported data, possible reverse causality of overweight and obesity on wealth, and the lack of physical activity and food price data. Conclusions Our findings indicate that as countries develop economically, overweight prevalence increased substantially among the poorest and stayed mostly unchanged among the wealthiest. The relative poor in upper- and lower-middle income countries may have the greatest burden, indicating important planning and targeting needs for national health programs.

Background Medical records play a fundamental role in healthcare delivery, quality assessment and improvement. However, there is little objective evidence on the quality of medical records in low and middle-income countries. Objective To provide an unbiased assessment of the quality of medical records for outpatient visits to rural facilities in China. Methods A sample of 207 township health facilities across three provinces of China were enrolled. Unannounced standardised patients (SPs) presented to providers following standardised scripts. Three weeks later, investigators returned to collect medical records from each facility. Audio recordings of clinical interactions were then used to evaluate completeness and accuracy of available medical records. Results Medical records were located for 210 out of 620 SP visits (33.8%). Of those located, more than 80% contained basic patient information and drug treatment when mentioned in visits, but only 57.6% recorded diagnoses. The most incompletely recorded category of information was patient symptoms (74.3% unrecorded), followed by non-drug treatments (65.2% unrecorded). Most of the recorded information was accurate, but accuracy fell below 80% for some items. The keeping of any medical records was positively correlated with the provider’s income (β 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Providers at hospitals with prescription review were less likely to record completely (β −0.87, 95% CI −1.68 to 0.06). Significant variation by disease type was also found in keeping of any medical record and completeness. Conclusion Despite the importance of medical records for health system functioning, many rural facilities have yet to implement systems for maintaining patient records, and records are often incomplete when they exist. Prescription review tied to performance evaluation should be implemented with caution as it may create disincentives for record keeping. Interventions to improve record keeping and management are needed.

BackgroundIncidents of patient-initiated workplace violence against health care workers have been a subject of substantial public attention in China. Patient-initiated violence not only represents a risk of harm to health care providers but is also indicative of general tensions between doctors and patients which pose a challenge to improving health system access and quality. This study aims to provide a systematic, national-level characterization of serious workplace violence against health care workers in China.MethodsThis study extracted data from the China Judgment Online System, a comprehensive database of judgment documents. Three key phrases, “criminal case,” “health care institution,” and “health care worker” were used to search the China Judgment Online System for relevant cases between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2016. Data extracted from identified cases was used to document the occurrence, the degree of risk, and the factors associated with serious workplace violence.ResultsIn total, 459 criminal cases involving patient-initiated workplace violence against health care workers in China were reported and processed. The analysis revealed geographic heterogeneity in the occurrence of serious workplace violence, with lower incidence in western provinces compared to central and eastern provinces. Primary hospitals experienced the highest rates of serious workplace violence and emergency departments and doctors were at higher risk compared with other departments and health workers. Perpetrators were primarily male farmers aged 18 to 44 with low levels of education. The most frequently reported reasons of serious patient-initiated workplace violence included perceived medical malpractice by the perpetrator after the death of a patient, death of a patient with no other reason given, failures of the compensation negotiations after the death of a patient, and dissatisfaction with the treatment outcomes.ConclusionsSerious workplace violence against providers varies across regions and types of health care institutions in China. Perception of low-quality care is the most reported reason for violence. Efforts should be made to improve quality of care in the low-level health institutions and strengthen the doctor-patient communication during the whole course of service.

Background China has one of the highest rates of antibiotic resistance. Existing studies document high rates of antibiotic prescription by primary care providers but there is little direct evidence on clinically inappropriate use of antibiotics or the drivers of antibiotic prescription. Methods To assess clinically inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions among rural primary care providers, we employed unannounced standardized patients (SPs) who presented three fixed disease cases, none of which indicated antibiotics. We compared antibiotic prescriptions of the same providers in interactions with SPs and matching vignettes assessing knowledge of diagnosis and treatment to assess overprescription attributable to deficits in diagnostic knowledge, therapeutic knowledge and factors that lead providers to deviate from their knowledge of best practice. Results Overall, antibiotics were inappropriately prescribed in 221/526 (42%) SP cases. Compared with SP interactions, prescription rates were 29% lower in matching clinical vignettes (42% versus 30%, P < 0.0001). Compared with vignettes assessing diagnostic and therapeutic knowledge jointly, rates were 67% lower in vignettes with the diagnosis revealed (30% versus 10%, P < 0.0001). Antibiotic prescription in vignettes was inversely related to measures of diagnostic process quality (completion of checklists). Conclusions Clinically inappropriate antibiotic prescription is common among primary care providers in rural China. While a large proportion of overprescription may be due to factors such as financial incentives tied to drug sales and perceived patient demand, our findings suggest that deficits in diagnostic knowledge are a major driver of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions. Interventions to improve diagnostic capacity among providers in rural China are needed.

Objective The purpose of this paper is to describe current practices of medical waste management, including its generation, investments, collection, storage, segregation, and disposal, and to explore the level of support from upper tiers of the government and health care system for medical waste management in rural China. Methods The authors draw on a dataset comprised of 209 randomly selected rural township health centers (THCs) in 21 counties in three provinces of China: Anhui, Shaanxi and Sichuan. Surveys were administered to health center administrators in sample THCs in June 2015. Results The results show that the generation rate of medical waste was about 0.18 kg/bed, 0.15 kg/patient, or 0.13 kg/person per day on average. Such per capita levels are significant given China’s large rural population. Although investments of medical waste facilities and personnel in THCs have improved, results show that compliance with national regulations is low. For example, less than half of hazardous medical waste was packed in sealed containers or containers labeled with bio-hazard markings. None of the THCs segregated correctly according to the categories required by formal Chinese regulations. Many THCs reported improper disposal methods of medical waste. Our results also indicate low levels of staff training and low rates of centralized disposal in rural THCs. Conclusions Medical waste is a serious environmental issue that is rising on the agenda of policymakers. While a large share of THCs has invested in medical waste facilities and personnel, it appears that actual compliance remains low. Using evidence of low rates of training and centralized disposal, we surmise that a lack of support from upper tiers of management is one contributing factor. Given these findings, we recommend that China’s policymakers should enhance support from upper tiers and improve monitoring as well as incentives in order to improve medical waste management.

Abstract As growth in development assistance for health levels off, development assistance partners must make allocation decisions within tighter budget constraints. Furthermore, with the advent of comprehensive and comparable burden of disease and health financing estimates, empirical evidence can increasingly be used to direct funding to those most in need. In our ‘financing gaps framework’, we propose a new approach for harnessing information to make decisions about health aid. The framework was designed to be forward-looking, goal-oriented, versatile and customizable to a range of organizational contexts and health aims. Our framework brings together expected health spending, potential health spending and spending need, to orient financing decisions around international health targets. As an example of how the framework could be applied, we develop a case study, focused on global goals for child health. The case study harnesses data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study, Financing Global Health 2015, the WHO Global Health Observatory and National Health Accounts. Funding flows are tied to progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal’s target for reductions in under-five mortality. The flexibility and comprehensiveness of our framework makes it adaptable for use by a diverse set of governments, donors, policymakers and other stakeholders. The framework can be adapted to short‐ or long‐run time frames, cross‐country or subnational scales, and to a number of specific health focus areas. Depending on donor preferences, the framework can be deployed to incentivize local investments in health, ensuring the long-term sustainability of health systems in low- and middle-income countries, while also furnishing international support for progress toward global health goals.

Large and increasing numbers of rural-to-urban migrants provided new challenges for tuberculosis control in large cities in China and increased the need for high quality tuberculosis care delivered by clinics in urban migrant communities. Based on a household survey in migrant communities, we selected and separated clinics into those that mainly serve migrants and those that mainly serve local residents. Using standardized patients, this study provided an objective comparison of the quality of tuberculosis care delivered by both types of clinics and examined factors related to quality care. Only 27% (95% confidence interval (CI) 14–46) of cases were correctly managed in migrant clinics, which is significantly worse than it in local clinics (50%, 95% CI 28–72). Clinicians with a base salary were 41 percentage points more likely to demonstrate better case management. Furthermore, clinicians with upper secondary or higher education level charged 20 RMB lower out of pocket fees than less-educated clinicians. In conclusion, the quality of tuberculosis care accessed by migrants was very poor and policies to improve the quality should be prioritized in current health reforms. Providing a base salary was a possible way to improve quality of care and increasing the education attainment of urban community clinicians might reduce the heavy barrier of medical expenses for migrants

Introduction Valid and low-cost quality assessment tools examining care quality are not readily available. The unannounced standardised patient (USP), the gold standard for assessing quality, is costly to implement while the validity of clinical vignettes, as a low-cost alternative, has been challenged. Computerised virtual patients (VPs) create high-fidelity and interactive simulations of doctor-patient encounters which can be easily implemented via smartphone at low marginal cost. Our study aims to develop and validate smartphone-based VP as a quality assessment tool for primary care, compared with USP. Methods and analysis The study will be implemented in primary health centres (PHCs) in rural areas of seven Chinese provinces, and physicians practicing at township health centres and village clinics will be our study population. The development of VPs involves three steps: (1) identifying 10 VP cases that can best represent rural PHCs’ work, (2) designing each case by a case-specific development team and (3) developing corresponding quality scoring criteria. After being externally reviewed for content validity, these VP cases will be implemented on a smartphone-based platform and will be tested for feasibility and face validity. This smartphone-based VP tool will then be validated for its criterion validity against USP and its reliability (ie, internal consistency and stability), with 1260 VP/USP-clinician encounters across the seven study provinces for all 10 VP cases. Ethics and dissemination Sun Yat-sen University: No. 2017-007. Study findings will be published and tools developed will be freely available to low-income and middle-income countries for research purposes.

Demographic and epidemiological changes are shifting the disease burden from communicable to noncommunicable diseases in lower-income countries. Within a generation, the share of disease burden attributed to noncommunicable diseases in some poor countries will exceed 80 percent, rivaling that of rich countries, but this burden is likely to affect much younger people in poorer countries. The health systems of lower-income countries are unprepared for this change. We examined the shift to noncommunicable diseases and estimated preparedness for the shift by ranking 172 nations using a health system capacity index for noncommunicable disease. We project that the countries with the greatest increases in the share of disease burden attributable to noncommunicable disease over the next twenty-five years will also be the least prepared for the change, as they ranked low on our capacity index and are expected to have the smallest increases in national health spending. National governments and donors must invest more in preparing the health systems of lower-income countries for the dramatic shift to noncommunicable diseases and in reducing modifiable noncommunicable disease risks.

BackgroundAnemia early in life has been associated with delayed cognitive and motor development. The WHO recommends home fortification using multiple micronutrient powders (MNPs) containing iron as a strategy to address anemia in children under two. We evaluated the effects of a program freely distributing MNP sachets to caregivers of infants in rural China.MethodsWe conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Shaanxi province, enrolling all children aged 6–11 months in target villages. Following a baseline survey, investigators randomly assigned each village/cluster to a control or treatment group. In the treatment group, caregivers were instructed to give MNPs daily. Follow-up was after 6, 12, and 18 months of intervention. Primary outcomes were hemoglobin concentrations and scores on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development.ResultsOne thousand, eight hundred and-two eligible children and their caregivers were enrolled. At baseline 48% (870) of children were anemic and 29% (529) were developmentally delayed. Six hundred and-ten children (117 villages) were assigned to the control group and 1192 children (234 villages) were assigned to the treatment group. Assignment to the treatment group was associated with an improvement in hemoglobin levels (marginal effect 1.77 g/L, 95% CI 0.017–3.520, p-value = 0.048) and cognitive development (marginal effect 2.23 points, 95% CI 0.061–4.399, p-value = 0.044) after 6 months but not thereafter. There were no significant effects on motor development. Zero effects after the first 6 months were not due to low compliance, low statistical power, or changes in feeding behavior. Hemoglobin concentrations improved in both the treatment and control groups over the course of the study; however, 22% (325) of children remained anemic at endline, and 48% (721) were cognitively delayed.ConclusionsProviding caregivers with MNP sachets modestly hastened improvement in hemoglobin levels that was occurring absent intervention; however, this improvement did not translate into improved developmental outcomes at endline.Trial registrationISRCTN44149146; prospectively registered on 15th April 2013.

This study uses standardized patients (actors trained to portray patients with specific symptoms) to measure the quality of tuberculosis care provided by village clinicians and township health center physicians in rural China. The study reveals significant gaps in care quality and highlights the challenges of integrating infectious disease detection into primary care systems in low-resource settings.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110257.].

Mobile health interventions including text message reminders can improve adherence to health interventions. This cluster-randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of SMS reminders on caregivers' adherence to a home fortification program for preventing childhood anemia in rural western China, demonstrating significant improvements in supplement use.

We present results of a randomized trial testing alternative approaches of mapping student achievement into rewards for teachers. Teachers in 216 schools in western China were assigned to performance pay schemes where teacher performance was assessed by one of three different methods. We find that teachers offered “pay-for-percentile” incentives outperform teachers offered simpler schemes based on class-average achievement or average gains over a school year. Moreover, pay-for-percentile incentives produced broad-based gains across students within classes. That teachers respond to relatively intricate features of incentive schemes highlights the importance of paying close attention to performance pay design.

Objectives Research increasingly indicates the importance of the nutritional programming that occurs in the first 2–3 years of life. Quality nutrition during this brief window has been shown to have large and significant effects on health and development throughout childhood and even into adulthood. Despite the widespread understanding of this critical window, and the long-term consequences of leaving nutritional deficiencies unaddressed, little is known about the status of infant nutrition in rural China, or about the relationship between infant nutrition and cognitive development in rural China. Design, setting and participants In April 2013 and October 2013, we conducted a survey of 1808 infants aged 6–12 months living in 351 villages across 174 townships in nationally designated poverty counties in rural areas of southern Shaanxi Province, China. Main outcome measures Infants were administered a finger prick blood test for haemoglobin and assessed according to the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. They were also measured for length and weight. Caregivers were administered a survey of demographic characteristics and feeding practices. Results We found that 48.8% of sample infants were anaemic, 3.7% were stunted, 1.2% were underweight and 1.6% were wasted. Approximately 20.0% of the sample infants were significantly delayed in their cognitive development, while just over 32.3% of the sample infants were significantly delayed in their psychomotor development. After controlling for potential confounders, infants with lower haemoglobin counts were significantly more likely to be delayed in both their cognitive (p<0.01) and psychomotor development (p<0.01). Conclusions The anaemia rates that we identify in this study classify anaemia as a ‘severe’ public health problem according to the WHO. In contrast, there is virtually no linear growth failure among this population. We find that low haemoglobin levels among our sample population are associated with significant cognitive and psychomotor delays that could eventually affect children's schooling performance and labour force outcomes. Trial registration number ISRCTN44149146.

Background When unaccounted-for group-level characteristics affect an outcome variable, traditional linear regression is inefficient and can be biased. The random- and fixed-effects estimators (RE and FE, respectively) are two competing methods that address these problems. While each estimator controls for otherwise unaccounted-for effects, the two estimators require different assumptions. Health researchers tend to favor RE estimation, while researchers from some other disciplines tend to favor FE estimation. In addition to RE and FE, an alternative method called within-between (WB) was suggested by Mundlak in 1978, although is utilized infrequently. Methods We conduct a simulation study to compare RE, FE, and WB estimation across 16,200 scenarios. The scenarios vary in the number of groups, the size of the groups, within-group variation, goodness-of-fit of the model, and the degree to which the model is correctly specified. Estimator preference is determined by lowest mean squared error of the estimated marginal effect and root mean squared error of fitted values. Results Although there are scenarios when each estimator is most appropriate, the cases in which traditional RE estimation is preferred are less common. In finite samples, the WB approach outperforms both traditional estimators. The Hausman test guides the practitioner to the estimator with the smallest absolute error only 61% of the time, and in many sample sizes simply applying the WB approach produces smaller absolute errors than following the suggestion of the test. Conclusions Specification and estimation should be carefully considered and ultimately guided by the objective of the analysis and characteristics of the data. The WB approach has been underutilized, particularly for inference on marginal effects in small samples. Blindly applying any estimator can lead to bias, inefficiency, and flawed inference.